[Oscars 2013] – Predicting The Nominations

9 Jan

An actual Oscar statuette to be presented during the 79th Annual Academy Awards sits in a display case in Hollywood

I still have a few 2013 releases to catch up with, and I though I wanted to make my Oscar nominations predictions post having seen all of them, the nods are due early tomorrow morning so I’ll have to post them now.

Below is how I believe the nominations announced tomorrow morning will shape up (in order of likelihood of having their names called out), with a brief paragraph following my prediction for each category to give out my feelings on each race, as well as me naming three wildcards that may also find a way to get in there. As usual, this is how I think the Academy will think and has absolutely nothing to do with my personal preference of films, performances or technical achievements (even though there are, obviously, bound to be some correlations). For my personal picks of the Best of 2012 you’ll have to check back in a few days when I’m done catching up with those 2012 releases I’ve yet to check out. So, yeah, without further ado, here are my predictions for tomorrow’s Oscar nominations (gonna be a long post, bear with me):

BEST PICTURE

  1. Lincoln
  2. Zero Dark Thirty
  3. Argo
  4. Silver Linings Playbook
  5. Les Misérables
  6. Life of Pi
  7. Django Unchained
  8. Beasts of the Southern Wild
  9. Moonrise Kingdom
  10. Amour

Much like last year, there can be anywhere from 5 to 10 nominees in this category, depending on the number of #1 votes each film gets on the nominations ballots. I’m inching toward something like 9 nominees or so, but here are the ones that, in the case of there being 10, I think will make the cut. I think the first 6 are absolute mortal locks, as is probably Django. So that’s 7 for us. Beasts and Moonrise have been doing well and probably have passionate followers that will rank them first on their ballots, and I think Amour gets the final slot. Wildcards: Skyfall (for the blockbuster element), The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (for targetting the demographic of Oscar voters) or Flight (because it’s Robert Zemeckis).

BEST DIRECTOR

  1. Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
  2. Ben Affleck (Argo)
  3. Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
  4. Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
  5. David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)

This category’s pretty amazing this year. The first three are mortal locks, and I think Ang Lee is pretty much as as safe as them. The last spot, however, is wide open. The DGA went with Tom Hooper for their fifth slot, which gives him momentum, but my gut feeling is that David O. Russell gets it, though there are some five other names or so that could also snatch it. Wildcards: Tom Hooper (Les Misérables), Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained), Michael Haneke (Amour).

BEST LEAD ACTOR

  1. Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
  2. Hugh Jackman (Les Misérables)
  3. Denzel Washington (Flight)
  4. John Hawkes (The Sessions)
  5. Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)

I actually changed the final slot when revising my final draft. I had Bradley Cooper in there because I thought The Master‘s momentum has died down, and it may have, but it’s still my favorite performance of the year in my favorite film of the year, so I have to go with my gut. Wildcards: Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook), Richard Gere (Arbitrage), Jean-Louis Trintignant (Amour).

BEST LEAD ACTRESS

  1. Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
  2. Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
  3. Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
  4. Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
  5. Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)

I think this is about three ladies fighting for the final two slots, Ms. Lawrence, Ms. Chastain and Ms. Watts are mortal locks in my mind. I’m giving Ms. Wallis the nod because Oscar voters like to go for at least one young person and I’m giving Ms. Cotillard the other because I think she will triumph over her countrywoman Emmanuelle Riva. Wildcards: Emmanuelle Riva (Amour), Helen Mirren (Hitchcock), Rachel Weisz (The Deep Blue Sea).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

  1. Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
  2. Alan Arkin (Argo)
  3. Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
  4. Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
  5. Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)

This category is just insanely hard to predict this year. I think only the first two are absolute locks and then Mr. DiCaprio may split the Django votes with Samuel L. Jackson and Christoph Waltz and then maybe Javier Bardem can get in there. I don’t know. I’ll be happy to get 3 out of 5 in this category. Wildcards: Javier Bardem (Skyfall), Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained), Matthew McConaughey (Magic Mike).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  1. Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables)
  2. Sally Field (Lincoln)
  3. Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
  4. Amy Adams (The Master)
  5. Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)

One of the weakest categories of the year and one that seems pretty much already sewn up for Ms. Hathaway. Wildcards: Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy), Ann Dowd (Compliance), Samantha Barks (Les Misérables).

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  1. Mark Boal (Zero Dark Thirty)
  2. Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)
  3. Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master)
  4. Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola (Moonrise Kingdom)
  5. Rian Johnson (Looper)

Something tells me Amour will pop up somewhere here but I just don’t know who to bump so for now I’m sticking with this. Wildcards: Michael Haneke (Amour), John Gatins (Flight), Nicholas Jarecki (Arbitrage).

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  1. Tony Kushner (Lincoln)
  2. David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
  3. Chris Terrio (Argo)
  4. David Magee (Life of Pi)
  5. Stephen Chbosky (The Perks of Being a Wallflower)

I’m giving the final slot to Perks for purely sentimental reasons, the fact is that maybe Beasts of Les Miz will probably end up getting it. Wildcards: Benh Zeitlin and Lucy Alibar (Beasts of the Southern Wild), William Nicholson (Les Misérables), Tom Stoppard (Anna Karenina).

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

  1. Amour (Austria)
  2. The Intouchables (France)
  3. A Royal Affair (Denmark)
  4. No (Chile)
  5. Beyond the Hills (Romania)

Maybe Kon-Tiki or War Witch could surprise here but these are the biggest-profile titles in the shortlist and should see no problem getting in there, though of course this category is always one to pull off a sneaky surprise or two. Wildcards: Kon-Tiki (Norway), War Witch (Canada), The Deep (Iceland).

BEST DOCUMENTARY

  1. The Gatekeepers
  2. How to Survive a Plague
  3. Searching for Sugarman
  4. The Invisible War
  5. This is Not a Film

To be honest this is just a combination of those which I liked and those which have buzz, the documentary branch (as evidenced by their mind-bogglingly dumb omissions from its shortlist) has a knack for making the weirdest decisions ever so you can’t really predict them. Wildcards: Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God, Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry, Bully.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

  1. Frankenweenie
  2. Brave
  3. Wreck-It Ralph
  4. Paranorman
  5. The Painting

I think the first four are locks and then you could fill the fifth one with Rise of the Guardians or Hotel Transylvania but the animation branch always leaves room for one obscure surprise so I’m going with a small French title. Wildcards: Hotel Transylvania, Rise of the Guardians, Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted.

BEST EDITING

  1. Argo
  2. Lincoln
  3. Zero Dark Thirty
  4. Life of Pi
  5. The Master

Maybe Django or Les Miz could pop in here if the love for them is pretty big. Wildcards: Les Misérables, Django Unchained, The Dark Knight Rises.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

  1. Zero Dark Thirty
  2. Life of Pi
  3. The Master
  4. Lincoln
  5. Skyfall

I’m giving the fifth slot to Skyfall simply because the Academy loves nominating Roger Deakins and then leaving him empty-handed. Wildcards: Les Misérables, Django Unchained, Anna Karenina.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

  1. Anna Karenina
  2. Lincoln
  3. Les Misérables
  4. Life of Pi
  5. Django Unchained

This category, renamed this year from Best Art Direction, is always damn hard to predict, the only one I’m 100% positive on is Anna Karenina, really, but we’ll see. Wildcards: The Master, Cloud Atlas, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

  1. Anna Karenina
  2. Les Misérables
  3. Lincoln
  4. Cloud Atlas
  5. Django Unchained

Period pieces are golden here so I think the first three are set (Lincoln far less so but I think it’s going to get a ton of nods so it will get one here, too). Wildcards: Mirror Mirror, Snow White and the Huntsman, The Master.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

  1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
  2. Lincoln
  3. Les Misérables

Only three nominees will get in here out of the shortlist of seven and the whole thing is pretty wide open, really. Wildcards: Men in Black III, Hitchcock, Looper.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

  1. Life of Pi
  2. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
  3. Cloud Atlas
  4. The Dark Knight Rises
  5. Prometheus

Wildcards: The Avengers, Snow White and the Huntsman, John Carter.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

  1. Beasts of the Southern Wild
  2. Life of Pi
  3. Lincoln
  4. The Master
  5. Anna Karenina

Wildcards: Argo, Cloud Atlas, The Dark Knight Rises.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

  1. Hugh Jackman – “Suddenly” (Les Misérables)
  2. Adele – “Skyfall” (Skyfall)
  3. Birdy and Mumford & Sons – “Learn Me Right” (Brave)
  4. Paul Williams – “Still Alive” (Paul Williams: Still Alive)
  5. Arcade Fire – “Abraham’s Daughter” (The Hunger Games)

The first 2 are mortal locks and the winner will be one or the other. The Brave song has Mumford & Sons on it and they move millions of records so that’s probably in, as well. Then the Paul Williams track is something I think the Academy will dig, and the Arcade Fire one is what I want them to choose so that we can see Win Butler and company at the ceremony. Wildcards: Norah Jones – “Everybody Needs A Best Friend” (Ted), Florence + the Machine – “Breath of Life” (Snow White and the Huntsman), Neil Flinn – “Song of the Lonely Mountain” (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey).

BEST SOUND MIXING

  1. Zero Dark Thirty
  2. Les Misérables
  3. Skyfall
  4. Django Unchained
  5. Lincoln

Wildcards: The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises, Argo.

BEST SOUND EDITING

  1. Zero Dark Thirty
  2. The Avengers
  3. Skyfall
  4. The Dark Knight Rises
  5. Les Misérables

Wildcards: Django Unchained, Life of Pi, Lincoln.

3 Responses to “[Oscars 2013] – Predicting The Nominations”

  1. colincarman January 9, 2013 at 1:01 pm #

    Nice work; I don’t know about LES MIZ as Best Pic nom (see my trashing of it) but Kushner has this one in the bag already

    • ArtfullyBedraggled January 9, 2013 at 1:10 pm #

      Were it up to me there’s no way Les Miz would get a Best Pic nod, but this is the Academy and this is pure Oscar bait haha

      • colincarman January 10, 2013 at 9:34 am #

        Truly hated that film; looking forward to ZERO tomorrow

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