Emmy Predictions: Reality/Variety

3 Sep

The 63rd Annual Emmy Awards will take place on Sunday September 18th, just a bit over two weeks from now, so it seemed like a fitting time to start setting some predictions into stone and posting my review of each race, since the last time I did so was in my EmmyWatch posts which I did to predict the nominations and as such they had a broader outlook. When predicting the nominees, I went 86 out of the 110 slots I had called, which I think is a solid number, hopefully my accuracy will only improve now that I’m predicting the actual winners. To kick off the Emmy Predictions post we’ll take a look at the Reality/Variety races.

OUTSTANDING REALITY SHOW COMPETITION

Nominees

  • The Amazing Race
  • American Idol
  • Dancing with the Stars
  • Project Runway
  • So You Think You Can Dance
  • Top Chef

Idol producers have been saying that if they don’t win the big one finally for their tenth season that probably means they never will. They have good reason to say that, this is the season in which they went against everybody’s expectations, with a revamped judge’s panel and attitude and they still remained the biggest show on TV.

Unfortunately, this is probably still between Top Chef and The Amazing Race, and while it was a nice upset and all that Top Chef ended the latter’s streak, I think normalcy is more likely to return than a new streak is to begin.

Should Win: American Idol

Will Win: The Amazing Race

OUTSTANDING REALITY SERIES

Nominees

  • Hoarders
  • Antiques Roadshow
  • Deadliest Catch
  • MythBusters
  • Undercover Boss
  • Kathy Griffin: My Life on the D-List

This is the category that I have no idea how to really predict, I would like a MythBusters win, but only because it’s the only nominee I actually watch. However, I’m hearing that Deadliest Catch may have the advantage in this category, so I’m going towards that direction.

Should Win: MythBusters

Will Win: Deadliest Catch

OUTSTANDING REALITY HOST

Nominees

  • Jeff Probst (Survivor)
  • Cat Deely (So You Think You Can Dance)
  • Phil Keoghan (The Amazing Race)
  • Tom Bergeron (Dancing with the Stars)
  • Ryan Seacrest (American Idol)

Seriously, Seacrest is good, Keoghan has the eyebrow, Deely is a great first-time nominee, and Bergeron might be my personal favorite, but there’s just no way in hell Probst is losing this one, he’s always won it, and he’s not stopping now.

Should Win: Tom Bergeron

Will Win: Jeff Probst

OUTSTANDING VARIETY SERIES

Nominees

  • The Colbert Report
  • Late Night with Jimmy Fallon
  • Saturday Night Live
  • Conan
  • Real Time with Bill Maher
  • The Daily Show with Jon Stewart

Look, you can really cut this any way you want to. You can say SNL may win because of longevity, you can say Maher will win because his sense of humor is unique on TV, that Coco will win on his first year because people are sorry for the whole NBC debacle, that Jimmy will pull it off because his late night show has found a voice of its own by being the funnest one out there, or that Colbert will finally pull out of Stewart’s shadow. There are valid points to be made for all those arguments, but in the end they’ll be invalid, this is Jon Stewart’s for as long as he wants it.

Should Win: The Daily Show with Jon Stewart

Will Win: The Daily Show with Jon Stewart

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