Tag Archives: Another Year

Oscar Predictions: Best Original and Adapted Screenplays

24 Feb

In my seventh Oscar Predictions post I will examine the state of both writing races, the Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay ones, who seem to both have pretty clear-cut winners already.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Nominees

  • 127 Hours (Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy)
  • The Social Network (Aaron Sorkin)
  • Toy Story 3 (Michael Arndt)
  • True Grit (Joel Coen and Ethan Coen)
  • Winter’s Bone (Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini)

Any other year and Toy Story 3 would have had a really solid chance, and it really would have been nice to see an animated film be the winner of a screenplay category, but the script Aaron Sorkin penned for The Social Network is shoulders above anything in contention this year, and there’s no way it’s losing this one.

Should Win: The Social Network
Will Win: The Social Network

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Nominees

  • Another Year (Mike Leigh)
  • The Fighter (Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy and Eric Johnson)
  • Inception (Christopher Nolan)
  • The Kids Are All Right (Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg)
  • The King’s Speech (David Seidler)

This category is full of exemplary screenplays, even though it’s insane to me that the Black Swan screenplay wasn’t nominated. The King’s Speech is all but guaranteed to take this one, but boy would I really love an upset at the hands of Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg.

Should Win: The Kids Are All Right
Will Win: The King’s Speech

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Oscar Nominations: My Reactions

25 Jan

The Oscar nominations were announced bright and early this morning. And while most of the nominees were predictable, there were still quite a bit of storylines to take out of the morning’s announcements.

Firstly, of course, the outrageous snub of Christopher Nolan in the Best Director category, Inception might have made the Best Picture ballot and Mr. Nolan himself got his second career Screenplay nod, but the Academy yet again failed to mention him for Best Director to make room for the Coen brothers. Another snub was The Town, which ended up with a sole Oscar nomination and got snubbed in the Best Picture as well as Director and Screenplay races, the films nominated instead were still quite deserving, but still, too little love bestowed on such a great film.

Then, on a far more positive note, this was also the year in which films that came out of Sundance came out strong at the Oscars, which is terrific news for the independent film business, The Kids Are All Right and Winter’s Bone both got 4 nominations in major races, Animal Kingdom got a Best Supporting Actress bid, and four out of the five Best Documentary nominees were shown in Park City a year ago.

As for what the nominations will mean come the big night on February 27th, well, The King’s Speech certainly got a huge boost today, scoring an even dozen nominations, the most out of any film this year. That has some people jumping from The Social Network‘s bandwagon into the one driven by Harvey Weinstein, since for the last several decades the movie with the most nominations has won the Best Picture race 75% of the time. Now, let’s play statistics for a while here, I actually still think The Social Network will still win this for now, but the stock on The King’s Speech has certainly risen in the last few weeks. First, of course, was Saturday’s PGA win, and considering that association has bestowed its award to the eventual Best Picture winner 13 out of the last 20 years it means it has the odds going for it.

But then again, lets not forget just how much The Social Network has going for itself, it pretty much swooped the Critic’s groups awards, including big wins at the Globes and the National Board of Review. Not to mention that David Fincher is the clear front-runner to win not only the Best Director Oscar, but the DGA honors that will be announced on Saturday. And really, the Best Director winner is always considered the likely victor of the big race and, in fact, the winner of the DGA award has actually went on to have their film win the Best Picture Oscar 33 times in the last 40 years.

So, who really has the advantage? I honestly don’t know, this really is one seriously tough race to call, and I won’t call it until all the remained precursors are done with. Yes, the DGA will most likely go to The Social Network, but then the BAFTAs will presumably be all over The King’s Speech considering it’s a home-grown film. The PGA win by Tom Hooper’s film was big, yes, but so were the many Critic’s Associations and Globes wins by David Fincher’s movie. So, if I may interject, I think that the one awards show that may be a big indicator as to what will happen on Oscar night will be the SAGs, taking place this coming Sunday.

Hear me out for a while, the SAG obviously doesn’t have a Best Picture award, but rather a Best Ensemble one, meaning it will honor the combined acting performances of the cast in a film. And while I still think that the front-runner for that one is The Fighter (which has four seriously spectacular performances), I can see an upset happening courtesy of The King’s Speech. The Social Network won’t win that one, it has some great performances but it can’t compete acting-wise with those two other films, so that race will be the one to prove just how much support The King’s Speech has. And if it wins that one, then I probably will update my predictions and consider it the front-runner for the Oscar, because, remember, the SAGs have many times served as indicators of Oscar upsets, I’m obviously referring to 1998, when the SAG went to Shakespeare in Love, the same film that went on to win the Best Picture Oscar over the clear favorite, Saving Private Ryan, and most recently in 2005, when Crash ended up with the SAG win and ended up upsetting Brokeback Mountain for the Academy’s top honor.

So yes, this will be a Best Picture race for the ages, one I’m really excited for and one that will come down to the very end. Will The King’s Speech end up with the win? Consolidating itself as the biggest Oscar bait there ever was in 2010, a biopic about British monarchy counting with excellent performances all around and a spectacular director working form a brilliant script. Or, will The Social Network prevail? The film with very young up-and-coming actors, directed by a director that started out working on music videos and then went on to create some of the most masterful and popular films of the last decade and a half, one about a modern phenomenon and full of quick-witted, very fast and talkative scenes. It will be a New School vs. Old School battle to the very end, the historical dramas have fared very well in the past, I’m thinking Gandhi or The English Patient, but as of late, with winners like The Hurt Locker and No Country for Old Men, it feels as though the Academy is skewing more towards films oriented to younger audiences with a more gritty sort of feel. We’re in for one very entertaining race to the finish line.

But enough about the big race, I’m sure we’ll talk much more about that in the near future, but for now let us revise all the nominations announced by the Academy today.

BEST PICTURE

  • 127 Hours
  • Black Swan
  • The Fighter
  • Inception
  • The Kids Are All Right
  • The King’s Speech
  • The Social Network
  • Toy Story 3
  • True Grit
  • Winter’s Bone

All the usual suspects here. I went 9 for 10 as far as my predictions go, considering Winter’s Bone felt the love from the Academy big time today and crept into the big party, throwing out my original prediction for the tenth slot: The Town. Again, as for who will actually win it, I have no idea, it’s a big split between The Social Network and The King’s Speech, and we’ll have a clearer idea of the state of the race once the remaining precursors are all said and done.

BEST DIRECTOR

  • Darren Aronofsky (for Black Swan)
  • Ethan Coen and Joel Coen (for True Grit)
  • David Fincher (for The Social Network)
  • Tom Hooper (for The King’s Speech)
  • David O. Russell (for The Fighter)

I went 4 for 5 in this one, considering I predicted the horribly snubbed Christopher Nolan to be invited to the party instead of the Coen brothers. However, True Grit got a massive ten nominations and the love went to the genius brothers instead. Which was well deserved, but it’s ridiculous that Nolan doesn’t have a Best Director nomination to his name yet. However, massive kudos to Darren Aronofsky for finally getting his first career nomination for helming what to me was the best film of 2010.

BEST LEAD ACTOR

  • Javier Bardem (for Biutiful)
  • Jeff Bridges (for True Grit)
  • Jesse Eisenberg (for The Social Network)
  • Colin Firth (for The King’s Speech)
  • James Franco (for 127 Hours)

Went a perfect 5-for-5 in this race, correctly predicting Javier Bardem’s nomination over Get Low‘s Robert Duvall. Still, Bardem’s nomination was much deserved, and it was awesome to see a foreign language performance getting a nod here. However, this has never been a race, the golden man probably has Colin Firth’s name engraved from this very moment.

BEST LEAD ACTRESS

  • Annette Bening (for The Kids Are All Right)
  • Nicole Kidman (for Rabbit Hole)
  • Jennifer Lawrence (for Winter’s Bone)
  • Natalie Portman (for Black Swan)
  • Michelle Williams (for Blue Valentine)

Another category in which I went 5-for-5 in my predictions. And it really is a lovely bunch of ladies getting nominated here, Michelle Williams got her extremely deserved nomination for her beautiful work in Blue Valentine and Jennifer Lawrence capped off her breakthrough year with an invite to Hollywood’s biggest party. This is, though, still a Portman vs. Bening battle, and even though I think Portman has the edge because hers was the better performance in the better film, I’ll wait until the SAGs are done on Sunday to call her a lock.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

  • Christian Bale (for The Fighter)
  • John Hawkes (for Winter’s Bone)
  • Jeremy Renner (for The Town)
  • Mark Ruffalo (for The Kids Are All Right)
  • Geoffrey Rush (for The King’s Speech)

I predicted four out of the five here, the one I got wrong was Andrew Garfield who I thought would firmly land a nod but was bumped off by John Hawkes who was riding on the huge love given to Winter’s Bone here. Still, this is no contest, it’s Bale’s to lose, and he just won’t.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • Amy Adams (for The Fighter)
  • Helena Bonham Carter (for The King’s Speech)
  • Melissa Leo (for The Fighter)
  • Hailee Steinfeld (for True Grit)
  • Jacki Weaver (for Animal Kingdom)

I’ve always said this was my favorite race of the year, and even though my personal #2 pick, Mila Kunis, was left out, it really still is. I said that if Hailee Steinfeld remained here and wasn’t voted as Lead, then either Ms. Kunis or Jacki Weaver would get the boot, I picked Kunis in my predictions but apparently the Academy really loved the Australian crime saga and wanted to give it a nod, as they should have, really. Still, this is the best race there can be this year, considering I could see any of these ladies potentially winning. Amy Adams was my personal favorite of the year, and she gives her best performance yet, and considering it’s her third nomination they may (and hopefully will!) give it to her. Helena Bonham Carter may find herself winning if The King’s Speech sweeps. Melissa Leo is the current favorite, and if she wins the SAG on Sunday then this will be hers. Hailee Steinfeld carries True Grit and the voters may like to reward a young one. And Jacki Weaver created one seriously compelling character here, though considering she missed out at the SAG I think she’s the less likely to end up winning.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  • Another Year (written by Mike Leigh)
  • The Fighter (written by Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy and Eric Johnson)
  • Inception (written by Christopher Nolan)
  • The Kids Are All Right (written by Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg)
  • The King’s Speech (written by David Seidler)

I went 4 for 5 in this one, and the one I missed was the one that pains me the most not to see here which was the beautiful Black Swan screenplay, which I had in favor of Another Year, but I guess you can never count Mike Leigh out of this race, he’s just that good. As for who will win it, I would very much like to see The Kids Are All Right pick this one up, or if not then Christopher Nolan as a sort of apology from the Academy for not even nominating him for Best Director. But, most likely, this one will end up firmly in the hands of David Seidler.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  • 127 Hours (written by Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy, based on the book by Aron Ralston)
  • The Social Network (written by Aaron Sorkin, based on the book by Ben Mezrich)
  • Toy Story 3 (written by Michael Arndt, based on the story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich)
  • True Grit (written by Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, based on the novel by Charles Portis)
  • Winter’s Bone (written by Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini, based on the novel by Daniel Woodrell)

As I said in my predictions, Winter’s Bone was going to put up a fight to be honored in this category. In my predictions I had The Town listed instead of Debra Granik’s film, but, as I’ve already said, the Academy shout-out the Ben Affleck film outside of Jeremy Renner’s nod, so no love here either. I like Debra Granik’s script better though (had it 6th in my Best Screenplays of 2010 list, while The Town was 15th), so I’m happy about it. Still, there’s no way Aaron Sorkin is losing this one, but then again I said the same thing about Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner’s script for Up in the Air last year.

BEST ART DIRECTION

  • Alice in Wonderland
  • Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I
  • Inception
  • True Grit
  • The King’s Speech

Very very good bunch of nominees here, the only film I could have seen making the cut and still be happy about it would have been Shutter Island, but nevertheless, this will be a very cool race. I’m hoping Inception will prevail here, though Alice in Wonderland may have something to say about that and, if it turns out to be a sweep, so may The King’s Speech.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

  • Black Swan
  • Inception
  • The King’s Speech
  • The Social Network
  • True Grit

If I would have to guess, I’d say True Grit will win this one. However, it was amazing to see Black Swan get listed here, though I would have liked to see The King’s Speech miss out on this race in favor of the wonderful job by the 127 Hours guys.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

  • Alice in Wonderland
  • Io Sono l’Amore
  • The King’s Speech
  • The Tempest
  • True Grit

As I said in my review for The Tempest, you can never count any Julie Taymor film out of the Best Costume Design race (all four of her films have now been nominated), but still, this one will most likely go to Alice in Wonderland. Cool to see Io Sono l’Amore get a nod here, too.

BEST EDITING

  • 127 Hours
  • Black Swan
  • The Fighter
  • The King’s Speech
  • The Social Network

Out of the technical categories, Best Editing is the one that foretells the Best Picture winner the most, so this one is one we should pay close attention to. Since the award was introduced nearly eight decades ago, only nine films have won Best Picture without being nominated here. Which I guess also goes to explain why Crash trumped over Brokeback Mountain. But still, the two Best Picture front-runners are here, so seeing who wins may be decisive as to who takes Best Picture. My vote goes to The Social Network here, and I still can’t fathom why Inception wasn’t named.

BEST MAKEUP

  • Barney’s Version
  • The Way Back
  • The Wolfman

They failed to recognize Alice in Wonderland in this one somehow, so I’m guessing this one’s definitely The Wolfman‘s.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

  • 127 Hours (composed by A.R. Rahman)
  • Inception (composed by Hans Zimmer)
  • The Social Network (composed by Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross)
  • The King’s Speech (composed by Alexandre Desplat)
  • How to Train Your Dragon (composed by John Powell)

Usual suspects in this one. Awesome to see Reznor and Ross up for this one, and they’re definitely my favorites to end up picking the award. However, Alexandre Desplat gets his fourth nomination with this one and still hasn’t won, so if The King’s Speech ends up owning the show he could win. However, Hans Zimmer’s score for Inception, which is all sorts of mind-blowing, may end up getting the win if the Academy feels it didn’t bestow enough nominations love towards the film, he hasn’t won an Oscar since The Lion King in 1995, despite being nominated 6 additional times since.

BEST SONG

  • If I Rise (from 127 Hours)
  • Coming Home (from Country Strong)
  • I See the Light (from Tangled)
  • We Belong Together (from Toy Story 3)

I honestly don’t know who will end up with the win here. All I know is that I’m happy no songs from Burlesque were named here.

BEST SOUND

  • Inception
  • The King’s Speech
  • Salt
  • The Social Network
  • True Grit

This is the one category that had most prediction experts baffled. Everyone predicted a maximum of 11 nominations for The King’s Speech, and this is the one nobody imagined, and the one that showed us just how much the Academy loved the film. As strange as it may sound, a Sound nomination is what really let us know that it was the front-runner.

BEST SOUND EDITING

  • Inception
  • Toy Story 3
  • TRON: Legacy
  • True Grit
  • Unstoppable

I really liked seeing TRON: Legacy here, and I was sure that The Social Network would get a nod here, but out of nowhere came Unstoppable and made the cut. Still, a cool and eclectic bunch.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

  • Alice in Wonderland
  • Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I
  • Hereafter
  • Inception
  • Iron Man 2

I expected TRON: Legacy to make the cut here, but at least it got a Sound Editing nod so it didn’t go unmentioned. Still, if Inception loses this race the Oscars will have lost all credibility to me.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

  • Biutiful (from Mexico)
  • Dogtooth (from Greece)
  • In a Better World (from Denmark)
  • Incendies (from Canada)
  • Outside the Law (from Algeria)

This one’s always very tough to predict. But hopefully Biutiful will end up with the trophy.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

  • How to Train Your Dragon
  • L’Illusionniste
  • Toy Story 3

This one isn’t a race at all, Toy Story 3 will win this one hands down.

BEST DOCUMENTARY

  • Exit Through the Gift Shop
  • Inside Job
  • Gasland
  • Waste Land
  • Restrepo

No Waiting for Superman? Yeah, very very weird. Same with the lack of Client 9: The Rise and Fall of Eliot Spitzer. Still Inside Job would be a very cool winner, as would be Exit Through the Gift Shop, especially if we somehow get a Banksy appearance.

OscarWatch: Best Director

24 Jan

Since the Academy Award nominations will be announced bright and early Tuesday morning (!) I thought I’d do seven OscarWatch posts for the main races: Screenplay (encompassing both Original and Adapted), Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Lead Actor, Lead Actress, Director and Picture.

In them I’ll detail my thoughts on the given race and how I think things are starting to shape up considering we have now seen most of the precursor awards and count with BAFTA and SAG nominations. I’ll give my personal Top 20, with a brief paragraph on each, for any given race and detail which I think will be the nominees for the Oscars come Tuesday. In this post I’ll tackle…

Best Director

I’ll give my Top 20 picks for best job at directing a film in 2010, my brief thoughts on each and then I’ll say how I think the Oscar nominations for the category will look once they’re announced on Tuesday.

As for the state of the race, I actually would stop calling it a race at all anymore. This award, no matter the outcome of the Best Picture one, will end up in David Fincher’s hands for sure.

Personal Top 20

  1. Darren Aronofsky (for Black Swan) – Yes, the award will go to David Fincher, but Darren Aronofsky is my personal pick for an inch. And that’s because Black Swan was my favorite film of the year by so much more than an inch. This is a masterpiece, a magnificent triumph in filmmaking, and Darren Aronofsky did a perfect job handling the reigns of it.
  2. David Fincher (for The Social Network) – David Fincher is the real deal, you look at his filmography and the titled you see are spellbinding: Fight Club, Se7en, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Zodiac. This is a guy who has made some of the definitive films of the last decade and a half, and this may just be his crowning achievement, just an amazing job by him.
  3. Christopher Nolan (for Inception) – The smartest film of all 2010, the kind of film that had you really working to keep up with it, and craving a repeat viewing to see what you may have missed. This was all executed to perfection by Christopher Nolan, who also wrote the film and was in charge of making “Did it stop spinning?” one of the most asked questions of all last year.
  4. Derek Cianfrance (for Blue Valentine) – I kind of fell in love with this film when I saw it, and it had a lot to do with the two lead performances. And those performances were directed to perfection by Derek Cianfrance, who also co-wrote the film and crafted a gorgeous look at a painful marriage.
  5. Edgar Wright (for Scott Pilgrim vs. the World) – I’m a massive fanboy of Edgar Wright, and I’m also a massive fanboy of the Scott Pilgrim graphic novels. When I first heard he was the one to be put in charge of bringing them to life I thought that if anyone was to succeed at that task it was probably going to be him. And sure enough, he created one of the most original and fun films of 2010 with a marked imprint of his very unique vision.
  6. Lisa Cholodenko (for The Kids Are All Right) – This is a wonderful film and it the woman handling the reigns, and also the one who co-wrote it, is at ease here, exploring very complex human emotions and situations. An exemplary piece of work.
  7. Joel Coen & Ethan Coen (for True Grit) – I’m starting to think there should be a campaign to name the Coen brothers the definitive American filmmakers of our time. They always tackle very different topics, eras, and genres, and they always produce work of the highest of qualities. Here they go forth an make a western, the genre you’d never suspect would fit to their artistic sensibilities, and yet the wonderful language of the book they adapted, as well as the perfect group of actors they got made it look easy for them to craft a seriously great film.
  8. Tom Hooper (for The King’s Speech) – This is probably the most prestigious film of 2010. Everyone loves it, it marries to perfection the historical biopic film aspects with mass appealing themes, and it has Tom Hooper sitting firmly on the director’s chair, working with a bunch of very talented and recognized thespians. He did a truly amazing job here, and if Fincher wasn’t such a lock to win the Oscar I’d call Mr. Hooper his biggest threat.
  9. Sofia Coppola (for Somewhere) – I’ll forever be a lover of everything Sofia Coppola does. And Somewhere is no exception, coming back from the larger scaled Marie Antoinette to return to the quiet, patient and beautifully observant films she does so well. Marie Antoinette was actually pretty amazing, but this is a return to her comfort zone, to where her aesthetic lies and where she can excel at telling small but beautiful stories.
  10. Ben Affleck (for The Town) – Here was the film that confirmed to everyone that Ben Affleck as a director is most certainly the real deal and not a one-hit-wonder who got lucky with the sublime Gone Baby Gone. He directs an all-star cast to some spectacular performances (I gave five of the film’s performances mentions in previos OscarWatch posts, including the one Mr. Affleck gave himself), and creates a bank heist movie that feels really fresh and doesn’t abuse any of the many genre clichés that would have been so easily to fall into for any lesser talented filmmakers.
  11. Danny Boyle (for 127 Hours) Slumdog Millionaire, his Oscar-winning previous effort, was going to be a tough act to follow. And Danny Boyle traded the very busy and loud streets of Mumbai and its many characters for a canyon in Utah in which his single character would be trapped for most of the film. And it paid off tremendously, with Mr. Boyle adding a very different and yet equally deserving film to his outstanding resumé.
  12. Debra Granik (for Winter’s Bone) – This was one very very cool cinematic experience for me in 2010, and how Debra Granik portrayed this very tough and very real region of the U.S. was just impeccable. Anchored by some awesome performances from breakout star Jennifer Lawrence and John Hawkes this was just a sensation film.
  13. Mark Romanek (for Never Let Me Go) – The music video director went back to feature films for the first time since One Hour Photo, and the result is the film that I have been calling the most underappreciated movie of 2010 in pretty much every OscarWatch post yet. This really was a beautiful adaptation of the Kazuo Ishiguro novel, full of pitch-perfect performances and able to create a very unique and fitting mood.
  14. Lee Unkrich (for Toy Story 3) – Pixar keeps its perfect streak alive with Toy Story 3, as the film managed to tell a story about growing up, about the blows life may deal us with, about friendship and love. It had huge laughs, great adventures, tearful moments, and everything else one could have wished for.
  15. David O. Russell (for The Fighter) – I loved The Fighter, and a lot of it had to with how David O. Russell chose to tell this story. Not using the many familiar themes and motifs that were available to huge extents, but using them as a backbone to tell a story that we all knew how it would end and still making it exciting and getting amazing performances from every single member of his cast.
  16. Mike Leigh (for Another Year) – There’s probably not a single living director who’s better at exploring the human psychology during everyday tasks than Mike Leigh. And Another Year is another prime example of why that is, this is just one very very good film, with a trio of awesome performances and a great overall feel.
  17. Noah Baumbach (for Greenberg) – Noah Baumbach is a guy I think can do no wrong. Greenberg is an exquisite exploration of its main character, a guy who’s not that easy to love, but who’s actually very easy to relate to and really care for. The situations created and explored by Mr. Baumbach and his cast, all of whom are uniformly excellent (especially Ben Stiller and the lovely Greta Gerwig), are just terrific to watch.
  18. Clint Eastwood (for Hereafter) – I know some people didn’t love Hereafter, but I thought it was tremendous. And that was mostly because of Mr. Eastwood, who got some very fine performances from his cast and dealth with a very interesting topic in a very interesting way. Why some people weren’t so fully on board with this film is something I won’t ever really understand.
  19. John Cameron Mitchell (for Rabbit Hole) – This was a very difficult film to really manage. And yet the result was something spectacular, with John Cameron Mitchell dealing with the hard material wonderfully, directing Nicole Kidman and Aaron Eckhart to some perfect performances in the process.
  20. Matthew Vaughn (for Kick-Ass) – Last spot in the rankings goes to Matthew Vaughn, who directed one of the funnest films in all 2010 and captured to perfection the graphic novel style of it all, crafting memorable characters and scenes, not to mention that this was what sparked Chloë Moretz’s career, so we have him to thank for that.

How I Think the Oscar Nominations Will Look Like (in alphabetical order)

  • Darren Aronofsky (for Black Swan)
  • David Fincher (for The Social Network)
  • Tom Hooper (for The King’s Speech)
  • Christopher Nolan (for Inception)
  • David O. Russell (for The Fighter)

I think Aronofsky, Fincher, Hooper and Nolan are all 100% sewn up to get nominations. And the fifth slot is a battle between David O. Russell and the Coen brothers for True Grit, but with the latest precursors indicating that the former holds the advantage in that square-off.

OscarWatch: Best Lead Actress

24 Jan

Since the Academy Award nominations will be announced bright and early Tuesday morning (!) I thought I’d do seven OscarWatch posts for the main races: Screenplay (encompassing both Original and Adapted), Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Lead Actor, Lead Actress, Director and Picture.

In them I’ll detail my thoughts on the given race and how I think things are starting to shape up considering we have now seen most of the precursor awards and count with BAFTA and SAG nominations. I’ll give my personal Top 20, with a brief paragraph on each, for any given race and detail which I think will be the nominees for the Oscars come Tuesday. In this post I’ll tackle…

Best Lead Actress

I’ll give my Top 20 performances given by actresses in a leading role in 2010, my brief thoughts on each and then I’ll say how I think the Oscar nominations for the category will look once they’re announced on Tuesday.

As for the state of the race itself, I’d very much like to call it a lock and say Natalie Portman will no doubt win this one. However, I don’t think we should count Annette Bening out just yet. I mean, I’d call it an 85% certainty that Ms. Portman will win this one, but Ms. Bening has already lost twice in this race (and I’m guessing that on both occasions she came in second in voting) so she’s due, and actors and audiences both love her, so an upset may occur.

Personal Top 20

  1. Natalie Portman (for Black Swan) – My favorite film of the year, my favorite performance of the year. I would love to see Annette Bening win because I thought she was robbed that first time she lost, but considering this performance by Ms. Portman then I’ll be sorry to tell her she should brace herself for a third loss.
  2. Michelle Williams (for Blue Valentine) – Michelle Williams I think I’ve never seen do a single bad thing. And she, alongside Ryan Gosling (who I ranked 3rd in my Best Lead Actor rankings), is just dynamite here. Providing a brutally honest and painful look at a very troubled marriage.
  3. Annette Bening (for The Kids Are All Right) – She’s undeniably great here, and she’s an awesome woman. The dinner scene at Paul’s house, from her singing that Joni Mitchell song, to finding out about her wife’s cheating and the expressions in her face, that’s all unbelievable acting from a woman who’s incredibly good at picking the right projects and is one of the best in the business.
  4. Jennifer Lawrence (for Winter’s Bone) – One of the breakout stars of 2010, she carries her little film to absolute greatness with a remarkably grounded performance which gives a speck of hope to a horribly bleak film.
  5. Nicole Kidman (for Rabbit Hole) – Nicole Kidman hasn’t been this good since The Hours. This was her passion project, she helped produce it and she stars in it, giving a gut-wrenching performance as a mourning mother.
  6. Julianne Moore (for The Kids Are All Right) – She goes head to head against Annette Bening in here, as her character goes through an emotional rollercoaster which she conveys to perfection.
  7. Carey Mulligan (for Never Let Me Go) – And I’ll say it one more time, Never Let Me Go, my official selection for the most underrated film of 2010. Carey Mulligan comes off her stellar star-making performance in last year’s An Education to star in this one, and she’s just amazing in it too.
  8. Lesley Manville (for Another Year) – Mike Leigh’s films are always an actor’s dream if the actor is willing to shed off any sort of vanity they may have and just lay it all on the line for the amazing director. Lesley Manville does just that, and the performance we end up seeing is a thing of beauty.
  9. Tilda Swinton (for Io Sono l’Amore) – I’m a big fan of Tilda Swinton, who already has an Oscar, and the work she did in this gorgeous Italian film is amazing, I seriously doubt a nomination will happen, but, much like Javier Bardem’s in the Best Lead Actor race, it would be kinda nice to see a foreign language performance get an acting nod.
  10. Noomi Rapace (for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo) – She’s generating some very nice buzz for her role in this one, the first entry in the Swedish adaptation of Stieg Larsson’s novels, and it’s all well deserved. She has a toughness that’s just brilliant to watch develop.
  11. Anne Hathaway (for Love and Other Drugs) – This film is one I thought was severely underrated, and Anne Hathaway’s performance was truly amazing here. She won’t get nominated, but this only builds up her string of amazing acting in very solid films, and I can’t help but think she’ll get one of those golden men in the future.
  12. Kirsten Dunst (for All Good Things) – Consider this mention my official “welcome back” card for Ms. Dunst. We hadn’t seen her in anything for quite some time, so just the sight of her was something I cherished, the fact that she went on and delivered a very good performance was just additional icing on an already very sweet cake.
  13. Sally Hawkins (for Made in Dagenham) – Though this wasn’t as amazing as her performance in Happy-Go-Lucky (which the Academy failed to recognize) it was still buzzing with the charismatic energy Sally Hawkins has, and the film is a lighter than most Academy baits so it has that fresh appeal going for it.
  14. Annette Bening (for Mother and Child) – A double-honoree in my rankings here, this was a film I thought was seen by too few people and was also full of impeccable performances. Ms. Bening’s was the finest of the bunch, as is usually the case.
  15. Naomi Watts (for Fair Game) – To go toe to toe with Sean Penn, and actually manage to out-do him is something very few actors can accomplish. Naomi Watts does just that in Fair Game, a film in which she gets to play Valerie Plame and does some incredible things with the role.
  16. Diane Lane (for Secretariat) – This film was supposed to be much more an awards bait than it eventually turned out to be. But I still thought it was a very very good inspirational film, anchored by a very nice performance by Ms. Lane.
  17. Chloë Moretz (for Let Me In) – 2010 was also the year in which we discovered Chloë Moretz, first in Kick-Ass and then in Let Me In. The latter was the one in which she delivered her better performance, and, even though the film was well-received, very few people actually saw it. If you haven’t done so, please watch it, it’s nearly as perfect as the original Swedish film on which it’s based, and has Ms. Moretz bringing her A-game.
  18. Kristen Stewart (for Welcome to the Rileys) – You just have to watch Ms. Stewart’s non-Twilight roles to really see how great an actress she actually is. Yes, her style of acting may be the same in all her films, kind of fidgety and quiet, but that gives each of her characters something rather unique. In Welcome to the Rileys she plays a troubled girl to tremendous results, going head to head with James Gandolfini in some really tough scenes.
  19. Gwyneth Paltrow (for Country Strong) – The film eventually wasn’t as amazing as it first seemed it would be. But Gwyneth Paltrow was still amazing in it. I’ve heard a lot of people say she’s way overrated, but I disagree, I think she’s pretty damn awesome in everything she tackles.
  20. Amanda Seyfried (for Chloe) – As always, the final spot of my Top 20 goes to a sentimental favorite of mine. Here it’s Amanda Seyfried, who does wonders with the titular role in Chloe, having some electrifying scenes alongside Julianne Moore.

How I Think the Oscar Nominations Will Look Like (in alphabetical order)

  • Annette Bening (for The Kids Are All Right)
  • Nicole Kidman (for Rabbit Hole)
  • Jennifer Lawrence (for Winter’s Bone)
  • Natalie Portman (for Black Swan)
  • Michelle Williams (for Blue Valentine)

First time in my OscarWatch for the acting races that the five nominations I imagine the Academy will name matches five-for-five with my five favorite performances of the year. Natalie Portman and Annette Bening are the mortal locks, with the award itself being a fight between the two of them, a fight in which Ms. Portman currently has the edge. Nicole Kidman and Jennifer Lawrence also look like very strong bets. As for that fifth slot, there’s a few ways in which that one could go, Michelle Williams I think will make the cut, and if she doesn’t I’d say it won’t happen because the voters will have put Hailee Steinfeld of True Grit as Lead instead of Supporting and she ended up bumping Ms. Williams off the shortlist.

OscarWatch: Best Supporting Actress

21 Jan

Since the Academy Award nominations will be announced bright and early Tuesday morning (!) I thought I’d do seven OscarWatch posts for the main races: Screenplay (encompassing both Original and Adapted), Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Lead Actor, Lead Actress, Director and Picture.

In them I’ll detail my thoughts on the given race and how I think things are starting to shape up considering we have now seen most of the precursor awards and count with BAFTA and SAG nominations. I’ll give my personal Top 20, with a brief paragraph on each, for any given race and detail which I think will be the nominees for the Oscars come Tuesday. In this post I’ll tackle…

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

I’ll give my Top 20 performances given by supporting actresses in 2010, my brief thoughts on each and then I’ll say how I think the Oscar nominations for the category will look once they’re announced on Tuesday.

As for the state of this race, I’ll actually go ahead and declare this one my favorite race this year, for the sheer number of women I think have a decent shot at the trophy. Melissa Leo seems like the favorite, but Amy Adams is my personal favorite and Helena Bonham Carter could also provide an upset. So yes, this one is the one I’m not sure how to predict just yet, and we’ll have to see how it evolves with the BAFTAs and SAGs.

Personal Top 20

  1. Amy Adams (for The Fighter) – My favorite supporting actress turn of the year is one from one of my favorite actresses around. The flashier role in the movie goes to her co-star (and awards season rival) Melissa Leo, who has been dominating the awards, but in a perfect world it would be Adams picking up that golden man come February.
  2. Mila Kunis (for Black Swan) – My favorite film of the year, and Mila Kunis has been getting some kudos for her role in it, hopefully the Oscars will grant her a nomination, too. If Natalie Portman’s role in the film was to be something, Mila Kunis’ role was to be the opposite of that something. And she did that wonderfully, feeling us with intrigue about her, with fascination about her confidence and demeanor, just a really well acted role.
  3. Melissa Leo (for The Fighter) – The ladies of The Fighter will end up sparring for this award. Melissa Leo is the odds-on favorite, being a fav amongst actors and having reaped through the precursors. And her performance is indeed pretty incendiary, as she gets to tear through some very beefy scenes.
  4. Jacki Weaver (for Animal Kingdom) – The fact that Jacki Weaver is getting this amazing movie noticed is reward enough in my opinion. But how she creates one of the most effective villains of the year in this film about the Australian underground crime is fascinating to watch.
  5. Barbara Hershey (for Black Swan) – Her performance in Black Swan is amazing, if I had to pick a lady out of this film to get a nod here it would be Mila Kunis, but in a perfect world they’d both make the cut. Her overbearing mother was just a spectacular creation from her.
  6. Helena Bonham Carter (for The King’s Speech) – The actors in The King’s Speech are all first-class, and Helena Bonham Carter is no exception, her performance is exquisite as everything she other does and will no doubt get her her second Oscar nomination.
  7. Elle Fanning (for Somewhere) – Every year there’s a child actress or actor trying to get in the supporting race, this year it seems that will be Hailee Steinfeld (though she may go Lead), but in my mind Elle Fanning is the one that should get all the kudos, she’s just adorable and strong and amazing here.
  8. Hailee Steinfeld (for True Grit) – As I said, the child performer of the year to me is Elle Fanning, but Hailee Steinfeld is literally right below her. She’s ferocious in True Grit, handling her own against Jeff Bridges throughout the entirety of the film. The thing with her is whether she’ll be deemed as Lead (like in the BAFTAs) or Supporting (like in the SAGs).
  9. Greta Gerwig (for Greenberg) – She was my favorite “find” of the year, an actress I saw for the first time in a great film and soon fell in love with her. And her performance is just as good as Ben Stiller’s in this one, and yet nobody seems to be noticing either of them.
  10. Keira Knightley (for Never Let Me Go) – Again, this is my pick for the most under-appreciated film of 2010, everyone here is amazing, and Keira Knightley is no exception, she’s just a very good actress and I can’t help but think an Oscar is firmly in her future.
  11. Marion Cotillard (for Inception) – The fantastic thing about Inception is just how much character development there is in the midst of all the mind-bending plot points we have to keep track of. Marion Cotillard plays an essential part in the film, and she’s marvelous as Mal.
  12. Rebecca Hall (for The Town) – As became apparent in the post I did for Best Supporting Actor, I think The Town is filled with spectacular performances across the board. And Rebecca Hall is one of the best in it, she dons a very convincing accent considering she’s British, and has a couple of heartbreaking moments in this one.
  13. Dianne Weist (for Rabbit Hole) – Nicole Kidman is the one that will get all the Rabbit Hole attention, as she should, but her scenes with Dianne Weist are the most dynamite, and it’s for a reason, here’s an actress who’s just terrific in anything she’s in, and knows how to totally own a part.
  14. Olivia Williams (for The Ghost Writer) – Olivia Williams is very very good in this one, and I’m guessing that if the film had been released later then she would have probably end up nominated. Some very good acting chops in display from her here.
  15. Kristin Scott Thomas (for Nowhere Boy) – Kristin Scott Thomas is one of those actresses that, when she’s at the top of her game, can go right ahead and steal a movie away from anyone. She does just that in Nowhere Boy, a remarkable little film that more people should have seen, she’s just splendid in it.
  16. Ruth Sheen (for Another Year) – Lesley Manville will get all the attention this film will get, acting-wise, but Ruth Sheen is just as amazing here, playing the woman who Manville’s character leans on all too much, and giving the film that ability to feel so relatable to us, much like all of Mike Leigh’s films.
  17. Michelle Williams (for Shutter Island) – This is just so that I can give a kudos to Michelle Williams, who I’ll always give as many kudos as I can to. No, but she’s seriously good here, another film that I feel as though it would have gotten much more awards love had it been released later on during the year.
  18. Sissy Spacek (for Get Low) – I’m a big fan of Get Low, and that is mostly because every actor in it is sincerely spectacular, and Sissy Spacek is a veteran of the screen, and she’s her usual impeccable self in this one, too.
  19. Miranda Richardson (for Made in Dagenham) – She just got the BAFTA nod, and while I think her performance in the film is delightful I wouldn’t count her as part of my Top 5, but still, this is a very good performance by a remarkably consistent actress, she just can’t do no wrong.
  20. Ellen Page (for Inception) – I was considering going for more conventional picks here, but I just love Ellen Page in anything she’s in, and I loved Inception, so I picked her. I know her performance wasn’t the most remarkable of the film, not by far, but I still think no one else could have played Ariadne this well, she’ll always be a favorite of mine.

How I Think the Oscar Nominations Will Look Like (in alphabetical order)

  • Amy Adams (for The Fighter)
  • Helena Bonham Carter (for The King’s Speech)
  • Mila Kunis (for Black Swan)
  • Melissa Leo (for The Fighter)
  • Hailee Steinfeld (for True Grit)

Here’s the thing with this hypothetical nominations outlook. It all depends on whether Hailee Steinfeld is voted as Lead or Supporting Actress, if she’s deemed as a Supporting one then I think she’ll definitely make the cut, and the fifth slot would be between Mila Kunis, who I picked here, and Jacki Weaver. If she’s voted as Lead then my guess is that both Ms. Kunis and Ms. Weaver will make the cut.

OscarWatch: Best Supporting Actor

21 Jan

Since the Academy Award nominations will be announced bright and early Tuesday morning (!) I thought I’d do seven OscarWatch posts for the main races: Screenplay (encompassing both Original and Adapted), Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Lead Actor, Lead Actress, Director and Picture.

In them I’ll detail my thoughts on the given race and how I think things are starting to shape up considering we have now seen most of the precursor awards and count with BAFTA and SAG nominations. I’ll give my personal Top 20, with a brief paragraph on each, for any given race and detail which I think will be the nominees for the Oscars come Tuesday. In this post we’ll tackle…

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

I’ll give my Top 20 performances given by supporting actors in 2010, my brief thoughts on each and then I’ll say how I think the Oscar nominations for the category will look once they’re announced on Tuesday.

As for the state of this specific race, I think it’s all but over now. Christian Bale will get his first Oscar here, there’s no other way of seeing this one playing out. There will be some competition from Geoffrey Rush, but it’ll all amount to nothing in the end.

Personal Top 20:

  1. Christian Bale (for The Fighter) – There’s no way this wasn’t anyone’s favorite supporting actor performance of the year. Bale is unstoppable as ever in this one, and he’s finally getting the much deserved recognition that had eluded him in the past.
  2. Mark Ruffalo (for The Kids Are All Right) – I’m a sucker for this film, and Mr. Ruffalo probably won’t end up anywhere near this high on the actual Oscar ballots, but I thought he was amazing in this one.
  3. Andrew Garfield (for The Social Network) – He goes head to head against Jesse Eisenberg in this one, and he’s amazing every damn second he’s on screen. 2010 was his breakout year, but we’ll keep seeing a lot of good things of him in the future.
  4. Geoffrey Rush (for The King’s Speech) – The likely #2 is my #4, but that doesn’t mean I think lowly of Mr. Rush’s performance, The King’s Speech is, after all, a masterclass in acting, and he gives an amazing performance in it.
  5. Vincent Cassel (for Black Swan) – Vincent Cassel won’t sneak into the actual Oscar race, but considering Black Swan was my favorite film of 2010 by a mile I thought I’d give him the final slot in my hypothetical nominations. A great performance by a great actor.
  6. Jeremy Renner (for The Town) – Everyone in The Town gave a fantastic performance in my opinion (even Blake Lively!), and the best of them came from Jeremy Renner who, riding high on last year’s nomination for The Hurt Locker, should have no trouble scoring another one this year.
  7. John Hawkes (for Winter’s Bone) – This is one of the most chilling performances I saw all of last year in an amazing film, if the film gets a lot of love on Tuesday he may find himself getting in there.
  8. Matt Damon (for True Grit) – Matt Damon is a guy the Academy loves, he even got a nod for the sub-par Invictus last year, and this film is actually amazing and he’s very good in it.
  9. Bill Murray (for Get Low) – In my book, Bill Murray can do no wrong, and he’s given some of my favorite performances ever. Robert Duvall will no doubt be getting all the attention for Get Low, and deservedly so, but Mr. Murray should steal some of it away from him, in my opinion.
  10. Justin Timberlake (for The Social Network) – Say whatever you want to say about Justin Timberlake. I think the guy’s great, and he’s actually a very very good actor. Or, at the very least, a guy who certainly knows how to pick his projects. In The Social Network he’s sensational, a true scene-stealer.
  11. Jim Broadbent (for Another Year) – I guess Mr. Broadbent would classify here and not in Lead Actor. And there’s no way he’ll get nominated because he hasn’t campaigned for a second, and that’s quite okay because he’s still wonderful in Mike Leigh’s latest, as he always is.
  12. Michael Douglas (for Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps) – If he gets this nomination then, granted, it will have to do more with his personal problems of late and the Academy’s need to recognize him then with the quality of the work he did. But the work he did was still pretty amazing, reprising the role that got him an Oscar in the first place to amazing results.
  13. Pete Postlethwaite (for The Town) – As I said above on Jeremy Renner, The Town is full of exceptional performances. And yes, naming Postlethwaite here may be riding on the emotional wave because of his recent passing (a wave that just got him a BAFTA nomination) but still, every time he appears on screen in the film he just chews up the screen, stealing away the spotlight from whoever crosses his path.
  14. Sam Rockwell (for Conviction) – He’s being put up higher on prediction lists, and just as well because his performance is actually pretty damn effective in this one, I just have him lower because the film itself I didn’t love as much.
  15. Josh Brolin (for True Grit) – Josh Brolin is one of the more consistent actors around as far as picking good projects and delivering in them (and yes, by saying that I’m choosing to ignore the disaster that was Jonah Hex) and in the Coen’s latest he’s his usual great self.
  16. Sean Penn (for Fair Game) – When reviewing my 2010 rankings to see what films there were that had great performances in them I realized I had forgotten about Fair Game, which was a very good film and had Sean Penn being just terrific in it.
  17. Jon Hamm (for The Town) – Yes, yes, I know, third mention for The Town. But it’s not my fault this one had so many amazing performances. Plus, who here can tell it wouldn’t be awesome to see Don Draper one day pick up an Oscar, or at least a nomination?
  18. Dustin Hoffman (for Barney’s Version) – I saw this film a couple of days ago, and it will actually count towards my 2011 rankings, but it classifies for this awards season so I’m putting it here. Mr. Hoffman is always great, and the film is getting a bit of momentum thanks to Paul Giamatti’s win at the Globes.
  19. Chris Cooper (for The Company Men) – This really is so that I can avoid giving a fourth mention to The Town, in which Chris Cooper had just one scene (but one in which he totally owned the screen). And also, this mention is inter-changeable with any of his co-stars in The Company Men (Ben Affleck, Tommy Lee Jones or Kevin Costner), all of whom were impeccable.
  20. Miles Teller (for Rabbit Hole) – Quite a lot of actors competing for this final slot in my hypothetical nominations, but I thought Miles Teller was polarizing in the best of ways in this tough-to-watch film.

How I Think the Oscar Nominations Will Look Like (in alphabetical order)

  • Christian Bale (for The Fighter)
  • Andrew Garfield (for The Social Network)
  • Jeremy Renner (for The Town)
  • Mark Ruffalo (for The Kids Are All Right)
  • Geoffrey Rush (for The King’s Speech)

I’m 90% sure this is how the nominations will look like, though I’m still considering John Hawkes may sneak in there, most likely at the expense of Mark Ruffalo. Let’s hope not, and we’ll see how it all goes down on Tuesday.

OscarWatch: Best Screenplay

21 Jan

Since the Academy Award nominations will be announced bright and early Tuesday morning (!) I thought I’d do seven OscarWatch posts for the main races: Screenplay (encompassing both Original and Adapted), Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Lead Actor, Lead Actress, Director and Picture.

In them I’ll detail my thoughts on the given race and how I think things are starting to shape up considering we have now seen most of the precursor awards and count with BAFTA and SAG nominations. I’ll give my personal Top 20, with a brief paragraph on each, for any given race and detail which I think will be the nominees for the Oscars come Tuesday. And we’re kicking things off with…

BEST SCREENPLAY

I’ll give my Top 20 screenplays of the year, though I won’t divide them between original or adapted screenplays, my brief thoughts on each and then how I think the two screenplay races may look this Tuesday, in no particular order.

As for the state of this race, I think the winner in the Best Adapted looks clear, and by this of course I mean The Social Network. Aaron Sorkin has been unstoppable thus far and he should continue his reign come the Academy Awards. And if someone can stop it then I’d say it probably would be Michael Arndt for Toy Story 3, but that won’t really happen.

As for the Best Original Screenplay race, things aren’t so clear-cut here to me. This one is a three-way race between Inception, The King’s Speech and The Kids Are All Right to me. If The King’s Speech ends up winning Best Picture then it’ll get this one, though it may still get it regardless. If the Academy wants to finally reward Christopher Nolan then they’ll do it in this category. And if neither of those scenarios happens then it’s The Kids Are All Right. Really really tough one to call, though, we’ll just have to wait and see who wins the WGA.

Personal Top 20:

  1. The Social Network (written by Aaron Sorkin, based on the book by Ben Mezrich) – My second favorite film of the year had by far my favorite screenplay of the year. Written by Aaron Sorkin in his typical witty and fast-paced talky style this one was amazing.
  2. The Kids Are All Right (written by Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg) – This is a film with a lot of stand-out scenes, and while a lot of that is because of the amazing acting it has on display, it also has to do with just how impeccable the writing is.
  3. Toy Story 3 (written by Michael Arndt, based on the story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich) – When you talk to people about this film, male or female, eight or eighty, they’ll all tell you they loved it, and most will also tell you they cried. That’s a testament to fine script Michael Arndt crafted for Pixar’s latest.
  4. Black Swan (written by Mark Heyman, Andres Heinz and John J. McLaughlin, based on the story by Andres Heinz) – My favorite film of the year should definitely get nominated for an Academy Award for it’s intriguing and hypnotizing script which creates this mesmerizing tension that translated so beautifully to the screen.
  5. Inception (written by Christopher Nolan) – The year’s most mind-challenging film was written to perfection by its director. And it had to be for us to be able to follow the intricate plot and structure. For him to have been able to introduce so much character development considering how much was going on is a testament to his writing skills.
  6. Winter’s Bone (written by Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini, based on the novel by Daniel Woodrell) – I thought Winter’s Bone was a remarkable film, and the job it did at capturing to perfection the mood of its source material was tremendous.
  7. Blue Valentine (written by Derek Cianfrance, Cami Delavigne and Joey Curtis) – Much like the film itself, this is a tough script, and a very original one, too. Grounded on some very raw emotions, this is just a very powerful screenplay, which, unfortunately, I don’t think will get much awards recognition.
  8. Somewhere (written by Sofia Coppola) – I may be biased here because of my undying love for Sofia Coppola, but I still really do think Somewhere has a beautiful script. I know many will say that that’s not really the case, because the script is really short and quiet, but what’s there is magic, just see the film if you don’t believe me.
  9. The King’s Speech (written by David Seidler) – David Seidler gets the trifecta of biopic scripts here. He makes it both informing about its historical figure, while still very moving and appealing to the masses.
  10. Rabbit Hole (written by David Lindsay-Abaire, based on his own play) – Adapting such a beautiful play was going to be a difficult task. Unless you were the one who wrote the play to begin with. David Lindsay-Abaire transfers perfectly the feel and mood of his Pulitzer-winning play from stage to screen.
  11. The Fighter (written by Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy and Eric Johnson, based on the story by Paul Tamasy, Eric Johnson and Keith Dorrington) – This is one very effective script, the writers took elements we’re all extremely familiarized with, and made them feel new and fresh within this real-life story.
  12. Never Let Me Go (written by Alex Garland, based on the novel by Kazuo Ishiguro) – My vote for the most under-appreciated film of all 2010. The screenplay by Alex Garland is moving and perfectly captures the dystopian atmosphere of the Kazuo Ishiguro novel.
  13. Another Year (written by Mike Leigh) – Mike Leigh’s at it again with this film, continuing his perfect observation of human psychology in a terrific film which explores the everyday lives of middle-class English people like only he can.
  14. 127 Hours (written by Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy, based on the book by Aron Ralston) – This one very compelling script, of course aided by the fact that they had Aron Ralston, the movie’s subject, on hand to ask questions to. The power of the film, in which we remain with one person in one place for the majority of its duration comes not only from the great direction and acting, but also from this very good screenplay.
  15. The Town (written by Peter Craig, Ben Affleck and Aaron Stockard, based on the novel by Chuck Hogan) – This was actually a pretty damn amazing film, and Ben Affleck, as we know, already has an Oscar for writing Good Will Hunting with Matt Damon. Here he’s joined by two other writers and creates a great film that never uses any cheap tricks or clichés and that always feels extremely entertaining.
  16. True Grit (written by Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, based on the novel by Charles Portis) – The Coen brothers are amazing at adapting this novel and making it their own. The vocabulary fits well with their trademark sense of humor, and they do wonders with that language in this one.
  17. Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (written by Michael Bacall and Edgar Wright, based on the graphic novels by Bryan Lee O’Malley) – I’m a huge fan of the Scott Pilgrim novels, and as such I didn’t knew what to expect of the film that tried to encompass those precious little volumes into a film. I had to nothing to worry about, though, because the result was a superbly fun film, written to perfection by Edgar Wright, the graphic novels’ fanboy and film’s director, and Michael Bacall.
  18. Greenberg (written by Noah Baumbach, based on the story by himself and Jennifer Jason Leigh) – I’m a huge fan of every single letter, comma and any other splash of ink Noah Baumbach writes, and Greenberg is no exception. This is an amazing story here, full of very good lines (“Youth is wasted on the young”, says Ivan. To which Greenberg replies: “I’d go further. I’d go: Life is wasted on people”).
  19. Get Him to the Greek (written by Nichollas Stoller, based on the characters created by Jason Segel) – The year’s funniest script, the amount of amazing one-liners this one has is ridiculous. Just go light up a Jeffrey, or drink up some naughty water, or something, because you’re about to get your mind fucked.
  20. Get Low (written by Chris Provenzano and C. Gaby Mitchell, based on a story by Chris Provenzano and Scott Seeke) – There were some four or five films competing for my final slot in this Top 20, but I thought Get Low was the worthiest entry, there is some very fine writing on display here as well as a very original premise. It also helps its case that the words were uttered by top-notch actors.

How I Think the Oscar Nominations Will Look Like (in alphabetical order) – Best Original Screenplay

  • Black Swan (written by Mark Heyman, Andres Heinz and John J. McLaughlin)
  • The Fighter (written by Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy and Eric Johnson)
  • Inception (written by Christopher Nolan)
  • The Kids Are All Right (written by Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg)
  • The King’s Speech (written by David Seidler)

This would be, in my opinion, a very very solid field of nominees. I think four of these slots are all sewn up, with the fifth slot being a battle between The Fighter and Another Year. Who gets that final nod will be decided by how much love those films get, and as such, I’m guessing The Fighter will prevail.

How I Think the Oscar Nominations Will Look Like (in alphabetical order) – Best Adapted Screenplay

  • 127 Hours (written by Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy, based on the book by Aron Ralston)
  • The Social Network (written by Aaron Sorkin, based on the book by Ben Mezrich)
  • The Town (written by Peter Craig, Ben Affleck and Aaron Stockard, based on the novel by Chuck Hogan)
  • Toy Story 3 (written by Michael Arndt, based on the story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich)
  • True Grit (written by Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, based on the novel by Charles Portis)

I think The Social Network, Toy Story 3 and True Grit are all locks. 127 Hours I’d probably count in the same category, too. Which means there’s only one slot that, according to me, is up for grabs. I think  the Academy will give it to The Town, since they won’t recognize Ben Affleck in the director category (by an inch) and will have to give him something here, though I’m expecting some fight from the Winter’s Bone screenplay.